# Net selling has little relation to next-day CRV returns

The next-day return association is -0.83 basis points in the earlier period. It is +3.66 basis points in the later period.

These are return changes for a one-standard-deviation rise in sell pressure. Sell pressure measures net CRV selling relative to recent DEX trading volume.

The estimates are much smaller than their standard errors: 29 and 34 basis points.

## Net selling has little relation to next-day CRV returns

Points are conditional next-day CRV log-return estimates; lines extend one standard error each way. Regressions control today’s return. Pressure is net token sales divided by trailing 20-day DEX token volume. Effects use one within-period pressure standard deviation. Earlier sample: 526 observations; later: 178. One basis point is 0.01 percentage points.

[Figure](../charts/pressure.svg) · [Data](../data/pressure.csv)

| Observation | Next-day return association (basis points per pressure standard deviation) | Standard error (basis points per pressure standard deviation) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Before 1 May 2026 | -0.8273 | 28.6683 |
| From 1 May 2026 | 3.664 | 34.038 |

## Measurement

The earlier sample ends before 1 May 2026. The later sample begins on that date. Both regressions control today’s return and use correctly aligned next-day returns. The source retains longer horizons and alternative normalizations.